WBJ's 2021 predictions

Photo | Edd Cote Downtown Worcester

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Every December, the WBJ Editorial Staff makes 10 predictions of news events and trends coming in the next year for the Central Massachusetts economy. Here's what they expect to happen in 2021.

Polar Park will become the most expensive minor league baseball stadium ever built.

Adjusted for inflation, the most expensive minor league stadium is the $153-million home of the Las Vegas Aviators. In January, the cost of the future home of the Worcester Red Sox rose 30% to $132 million, and that was before the city government and the team brought on extra labor to meet the hard April 2021 deadline and overcome the shutdown caused by the coronavirus. Those extra labor costs will put Polar Park at No. 1.

The number of Worcester restaurants at the end of 2021 will be equal to the number there were at the start of 2020.

COVID-19 has ravaged the hospitality industry, with up to a quarter of Massachusetts restaurants being forced to close. Despite this, the industry is resilient and will quickly rebound once the pandemic has passed; restaurants will reopen, or new ones will replace those permanently closed.

Worcester Regional Airport will still have zero regular commercial flights at the end of 2021

Unlike restaurants, the airline industry can’t just spring back from the coronavirus’ damages. Worcester’s airport was never a hotspot for airlines to begin with, and the return of the five nonstops it lost in 2020 won’t be a priority until the industry is near full recovery.

Central Massachusetts will achieve herd immunity from COVID-19 by July.

The first vaccines have already been administered in Central Massachusetts, going to frontline health workers. Although the rollout for the entire population is still months away, enough people in Central Massachusetts will have the vaccine by summer in order for the economy and society to return to almost pre-pandemic conditions.

One daily newspaper in Central Massachusetts will close up operations.

The daily newspaper industry has been trending in the wrong direction for years now, as media companies have reduced editorial staffs in order to increase profits. With the pandemic causing the closure of physical newsrooms across New England, it is only a matter of time before at least one daily newspaper brand is eliminated entirely.

Manufacturing employment will significantly rise.

The number of workers in Greater Worcester manufacturing companies has remained relatively steady for the past 10 years, at roughly 28,000. The industry has been one of the few bright spots in the local economy as the pandemic has hit other industries harder. As more companies realize the benefits of having workers local and more companies move into the region, particularly in the life sciences sector, the number of jobs will jump.

At least 200,000 square feet of currently occupied office space will become available for sublease.

The commercial office market took a hit in the early phases of the pandemic, with the vacancy rate rising above 20% in downtown Worcester. Although it recovered slightly, more companies will realize the cost savings of having their employees work from home, as insurer Unum did earlier this year when it vacated 80,000 square feet in Worcester. In Framingham and Natick alone, 100,000 square feet became available as five companies were looking to sublease.

A woman of color will be announced as the new president of a Central Massachusetts university.

Currently, two of the 17 Central Massachusetts colleges have upcoming vacancies in their top posts: Nichols College in Dudley and the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester. With these two openings and the tenures of a handful of other college presidents nearing 10 years or more, at least one school will select a woman of color as its next leader, becoming the only one in the region.

The host community agreement requirement for new marijuana companies will be dismantled and replaced.

A significant barrier to entry for new cannabis companies since Massachusetts approved recreational marijuana in 2016 has been the necessary approval from their host communities, who often require significant payouts and charitable donations. The state Cannabis Control Commission has refused to meaningfully address the issue, but a case before the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court will force a change.

More craft breweries will open and expand.

Despite the pandemic’s impact on the hospitality industry, the craft beer industry in Central Mass. fared surprisingly well as smaller operators avoided closure and larger ones, like Tree House Brewing Co. in Charlton, announced expansions. As the pandemic fades away, the industry will return to its previous growth phase.