March 30, 2007
Relax, Worcester. It's not as bad as you think.
By Cory Hopkins
The downturn in the housing market may be a cause for concern, but according to Timothy Warren of The Warren Group, the sky, in fact, is not falling.
"My long range forecast, as Mr. Rogers used to tell my kids, is that it's a beautiful day in the neighborhood," said Warren, who was a member of a four-person panel at the 2007 Economic Outlook forum held Thursday at the Beechwood Hotel.
Warren - whose company publishes Banker & Tradesman and provides real estate data - predicted that the number of single family home sales in the region would ultimately increase this year after a tumultuous 2006 and that falling home prices would stabilize in the second half of 2007.
Warren blamed a volatile 2006 housing economy on simple gravity, repeating the adage that what goes up must inevitably come down. After 12 straight years of rising home prices, we were due for a market correction, Warren said.
"The market was just unable to sustain this kind of rapid price appreciation," Warren said. "After 12 years, something's gotta fall."
Warren was joined on the panel by John Merrill, market president of Sovereign Bank, Jack Wilson, president of the University of Massachusetts, and Jeff Fuhrer, executive vice president and director of research of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
The panel was hosted by the Worcester Business Journal and the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce and sponsored by Sovereign Bank.
Warren, Merrill and Fuhrer told the assembled crowd of several hundred area business leaders that the numbers of foreclosures on homes in recent months, while alarming, should not be taken out of context, reminding them that they were comparing recent numbers to a period of record lows in that segment.
All four speakers stressed the increasing attractiveness of Worcester County and areas west of Interstate 495 to large companies, particularly in the biotechnology segment, seeking affordable commercial space and available, affordable housing for their employees.
Median home prices in Worcester County in 2006 were roughly $150,000 less than prices on comparable homes in Middlesex County to the east, according to Warren Group numbers.
"My long range forecast, as Mr. Rogers used to tell my kids, is that it's a beautiful day in the neighborhood," said Warren, who was a member of a four-person panel at the 2007 Economic Outlook forum held Thursday at the Beechwood Hotel.
Warren - whose company publishes Banker & Tradesman and provides real estate data - predicted that the number of single family home sales in the region would ultimately increase this year after a tumultuous 2006 and that falling home prices would stabilize in the second half of 2007.
Warren blamed a volatile 2006 housing economy on simple gravity, repeating the adage that what goes up must inevitably come down. After 12 straight years of rising home prices, we were due for a market correction, Warren said.
"The market was just unable to sustain this kind of rapid price appreciation," Warren said. "After 12 years, something's gotta fall."
Warren was joined on the panel by John Merrill, market president of Sovereign Bank, Jack Wilson, president of the University of Massachusetts, and Jeff Fuhrer, executive vice president and director of research of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
The panel was hosted by the Worcester Business Journal and the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce and sponsored by Sovereign Bank.
Warren, Merrill and Fuhrer told the assembled crowd of several hundred area business leaders that the numbers of foreclosures on homes in recent months, while alarming, should not be taken out of context, reminding them that they were comparing recent numbers to a period of record lows in that segment.
All four speakers stressed the increasing attractiveness of Worcester County and areas west of Interstate 495 to large companies, particularly in the biotechnology segment, seeking affordable commercial space and available, affordable housing for their employees.
Median home prices in Worcester County in 2006 were roughly $150,000 less than prices on comparable homes in Middlesex County to the east, according to Warren Group numbers.
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