Long road back for Mass. economy
Massachusetts will continue to lag behind the rest of the country in job and population growth, with market trends showing slow development through 2010.
That’s the view of Dr. Michael Goodman, director of economic and policy research at the UMass Donahue Institute. Goodman pointed to concerns over a shrinking resident pool and a failure to regain jobs lost years ago at a February 16 presentation at the Massachusetts College of Pharmacy.The tech crash of 2000 continues to hurt local employers, said Goodman. Of the 207,000 jobs lost in late 2000, only 44,000 jobs have come back to Massachusetts. Despite growth in the education and tourism markets, hi-tech and manufacturing jobs are still in a decline, and are likely to be until 2010, according to the economist.
"From where we’re sitting now, it looks like there is very slow job growth ahead," said Goodman.
The sober outlook comes on top of previous losses for the state, notes Goodman. Between 1990 and 2002, Massachusetts lost more domestic residents than it gained in those years. One of the largest moves was to New Hampshire, with 78,000 residents heading north, and to Florida, where 100,000 residents moved.
"If you look at commuting patterns from Southern New Hampshire, we’re not retaining residents," Goodman said. "Jobs and opportunities have largely been following those people."
Massachusetts is also facing a brain drain, said Goodman. Between 2002 and 2004, the influx of students to in-state colleges went down, while the number of domestic residents to out-of-state schools went up. Low wages and high home prices have contributed to this out-migration.
"We’re losing people in Massachusetts at the point that they’re deciding where they’re going to make a life," said Goodman, "and they’re choosing other places."
Jeff Lavery can be reached at jlavery@wbjournal.com
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