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Updated: December 23, 2019 Economic Forecast 2020: Brick & mortar

What to expect in 2020: More stores are headed for closure, as retail becomes more specialized

Photo | Grant Welker The Greendale Mall had more store vacancies than openings when it was purchased in December.

The retail store industry will continue its contraction and reshaping into next year.

More closures certain to come

The list of retail store closures in Central Massachusetts and beyond in 2019 is much like in 2018 or 2017 – only the names of the stores change. This year, the tally was more than 30 locations just among major closures including Payless ShoeSource and Dressbarn. It isn’t just traditional shopping centers struggling with empty spaces, either. Downtown areas are, too, including in Worcester, Fitchburg, Framingham, Marlborough and Webster. Each of those cities are part of a new state incentive program meant to help fill empty storefronts. More closures are almost assuredly on the horizon, especially if the economic run loses momentum. Global financial firm Credit Suisse is predicting 2020 to be as bad or even worse for retail closures than in 2019, according to Bloomberg – and that’s after 2019 had the highest number of such closures on record heading into the fall.

Record doesn’t discourage new growth

In September, Maynard Crossing began construction of anchor tenant Market Basket.

Despite all of that, there’s still more retail stores on the horizon – and their success will depend on being able to find enough shops to carve out a niche in an industry always increasingly dominated by Amazon and other giants. In Shrewsbury, the former Edgemere Drive-In site – vacant for roughly two decades – is proposed for a development called Edgemere Crossing at Flint Pond, with 145,000 square feet of retail space and 250 apartments. In Maynard, another Maynard Crossing is under construction with 306,000 square feet of retail, a 180-unit apartment complex, and a 143-unit senior independent living community. A bit further off on the horizon in the early stages of site work is a mixed-use development meant to complement Polar Park, a new ballpark on Madison Street in Worcester. The project is set to open in 2021 and include retail and restaurant space, along with two hotels and 224 apartments.

Remaking retail

Photo/Apex Entertainment
The Apex Center in Marlborough

What’s one way developers are hoping to beat the retail contraction? By remaking what a shopping center looks like. Four shopping centers – Edgemere Crossing in Shrewsbury and Meadow Walk in Sudbury, which both recently opened, and Maynard Crossing and Edgemere Crossing, which are soon to open – incorporate housing. Another, the Apex Center of New England in Marlborough, has two hotels, an office building and an entertainment complex with bowling, bumper cars and other attractions. That’s a continuation of the first response developers had to changing retail, which was finding new uses for individual spaces such as fitness centers or medical offices, like Reliant Medical Group’s move into former Macy’s and Price Chopper locations.

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