Report Predicts Slow Mass. Population Growth
A report released by the UMass Donahue Institute today forecasts population growth of 4.4 percent between 2010 and 2030, with the growth rate gradually slowing both in Central Massachusetts and across the state as the birth rate declines and the population ages.
The report, titled “Long-Term Population Projections for Massachusetts Regions and Municipalities,” was commissioned by Secretary of State William F. Galvin. It found the statewide population will increase 290,589 over 20 years to 6.83 million. The bulk of the growth, 3.2 percent, is expected to occur in the first 10 years; between 2010 and 2020, and taper off afterward.
The same trend is expected in Central Massachusetts, which saw an annualized growth rate of 0.6 percent between 2000 and 2010, due to a combination of more people moving to the region than leaving it, and a natural increase in the number of births compared to deaths. The Donahue report said Central Massachusetts appears to be a “relatively attractive” destination for elderly people as well as those in their 30s with young children.
In the next 20 years, the Central Massachusetts population growth rate is expected to decline 0.2 percent by 2025, according to Donahue, as the gap between births and deaths narrows. As the population ages, the death rate will climb from roughly 29,000 between 2005 and 2009 to 39,000 between 2025 and 2030.
Galvin said in a statement that the data published by Donahue “will be a critical basis for thinking and planning by state and local officials as they look at where Massachusetts can be over the coming two decades.”
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