Less need for optimism: WBJ readers see growth leveling off

Emmanuel Larbi, co-owner of Accra Girls restaurant in Worcester, was one of the featured business owners in the City of Immigrants series.

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By Brad Kane

When the Great Recession ended in 2009, the Central Massachusetts economy had nowhere to go but up. But, now, after nearly a decade of improvement to revenue, production, unemployment rates, housing prices and other key economic indicators, that isn't true anymore.

In WBJ's annual online survey of its readership on their businesses' outlooks for the coming year, we saw less optimism than in years past. Enthusiasm for overall economic growth, housing price increases and workforce skills was down compared to predictions for 2018 and 2017. However, more people planned to hire additional staff than at any point since the survey began in 2012.

When asked how the economy will fair next year compared to this year, improving slightly was still the most popular answer, but overall more people predicted a decline in the economy instead of an increase: 36% vs. 35%. That's still really close, but in previously years, roughly two-thirds of respondents predicted an increase.

The national signs of the economy nearing its post-Recession peak are already starting to rumble: After much volatility in the last 12 months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 800 points compared to this time last year. Certainly this is not the only indicator (the local, state and national unemployment rates all remain below 4 percent), but there is reason to believe WBJ's readers' collective less optimistic belief about the coming year.

The low unemployment rate has WBJ readers worried about the quality of the talent in the Central Massachusetts workforce, as nearly three-quarters of those who said they plan to hire this year say they are concerned new employees won't have the skills they need. With nearly half of readers say they plan on hiring, this could become an even bigger issue in 2019.

Housing prices have been rising steadily since the 2007 crash, but the main reason the median price in Worcester County of $275,000 is 7 percent higher than last year is the high demand for the limited number of homes for sale, according to Boston real estate data firm The Warren Group. With 68 percent of WBJ readers predicting prices to stay flat or decline – the first time in the last three year the majority wasn't calling for an increase – that could mean more housing stock is finally coming onto the market, forcing prices to drop while at the same time providing adequate housing to meet demand.