Economic Forecast: Higher education’s future is less uncertain
PHOTO/GRANT WELKER
College of the Holy Cross, in Worcester
The fall 2020 semester is one that tested colleges unlike any before it. For many undergraduates, the college experience involves packing in a classroom full of other students, living in dorms and experiencing life on their own for the first time. Little of that was possible this fall because of the coronavirus pandemic. The coming year will require keeping an eye out for how different trends respond to what could be a return to some normalcy by the fall.
Testing and restrictions must stay effective
Colleges in Central Mass. generally still had at least some classes on campus, and some students in dorms. To allow for that, they tested, tested and tested some more: at least 240,000 coronavirus tests over a roughly four-month stretch. Largely speaking, it worked. The schools’ positivity rate was about 0.1%, well below the state average, even for other colleges statewide. Now, colleges will have to repeat the act for the spring. College of the Holy Cross, for one, plans to hold classes in person in the spring, unlike the fall, saying it learned what will be effective for keeping people safe. The major challenge is colleges will likely be starting the semester with a far higher national case level than they did in the late summer. By the time the semester’s mostly through, vaccines could be starting to make a significant dent in new case numbers.
Enrollment unknowns
Will the fall 2021 semester be safe enough for schools to operate relatively normally? Will students who deferred their first year or dropped out return? If so, would that lead to tougher admissions standards, as colleges would have to fit more students than normal into classrooms and dorms? And for foreign students, will they feel as safe studying in a country that’s easily led the world in coronavirus deaths and cases? What about students who couldn’t or didn’t take their SAT? College admissions officials described planning for the fall 2020 semester as a huge unknown, even deep into the summer when the student body would typically be largely established. The same could well be true for the fall of 2021, with news reports showing applications down slightly.
Another financial challenge
Small colleges in particular have been struggling financially to balance rising costs of educating students with sometimes through-the-roof student debt hampering their financial wellbeing well after graduation. Nichols College in Dudley spent nearly $1 million in the fall semester on tests alone. Schools will have to do the same for the spring semester, as well as retrofit classroom and dorm spaces. They’re foregoing the revenue of enrollment, specifically room and board. For deep-pocketed schools, it’s just a speed bump. For others, it’s another financial challenge, and it may be hard for the financial crunch not to result in cuts including layoffs or furloughs.
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