Alan Osmolowski is a tax partner with BlumShapiro in Worcester, where he leads the firm’s technology and life sciences practice. He can be reached at aosmolowski@blumshapiro.com.
Updated: December 21, 2020
Economic Forecast 2021
Is a federal tax increase in the new year likely?
By Alan Osmolowski
President-elect Joe Biden will take office on Jan. 20, and the new Congress will convene on Jan. 3. Biden has stated he wants to raise taxes on high-income households and corporations. For corporations, he would propose an increase in the federal tax rate from 21% to 28%. Further, corporations would be subject to a new minimum tax and increased taxes on foreign income.
For high-net worth individuals, the new administration would propose an increase in the top tax rate to 39.6% from 37%, create new limits on deductions, and impose the 12.4% Social Security payroll tax on wages above $400,000. Capital gains currently taxed at 23.8% would be taxed at 39.6% for taxpayers with more than $1 million of income.
Higher income owners of pass-through businesses such as S-corporations and partnerships would lose the benefit of the 20% Qualified Business Income deduction.
How likely is a federal tax law change in 2021? For the new administration to implement its proposed tax law changes, Biden will need to get a tax bill through Congress. Many tax advisors would say it is not very likely a tax bill will get through the Senate in 2021, so the chance of a significant change in federal tax rates in 2021 may be remote.
The Democrats kept their majority in the House. The new administration may have to work with a Republican Senate majority, pending the results of the Georgia runoff elections. Even if the Democrats control the Senate by a simple majority, there are still other hurdles they would need to overcome to get a tax bill passed. One such hurdle is the Senate filibuster rule. As a general rule, 60 votes are required to pass legislation being filibustered in the Senate. The Democrats will not control 60 seats in the Senate. Further, some would argue the proposed tax increases may not be supported by all the senators whose votes would be crucial for passage. Some of the Senate supporting the tax increases may prefer to implement them once the economy has stabilized.
In 2021, the Democratic House will have to navigate various other tax policy issues. Another round of economic relief and upcoming tax provisions put in place as part of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will expire over the next six years and will likely have to be addressed in conjunction with a proposed tax bill. The TCJA’s individual income tax provisions are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, along with the phaseout of several business tax provisions between 2021 and 2026, unless Congress acts.
These sunsetting provisions of the TCJA will likely be at the forefront of tax policy discussion in the coming year. All of these issues will require debate and negotiation, which takes time and makes the prospect of a significant tax law change in 2021 less likely.
Although Congress can and has enacted tax legislation retroactively, it would appear unlikely a significant tax law change retroactive to Jan. 1 would be enacted in 2021. Historically, it is more commonplace for tax law changes to be effective prospectively so taxpayers can plan for the change and the policy changes can be incorporated into Internal Revenue Service forms and software, etc.
So for now, it appears the chances of significant federal tax law change in 2021 may be remote. That may not be the case in subsequent years, though. Rest assured discussions around federal tax law changes will continue to be in the forefront in 2021 and subsequent years.
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