Worcester to Providence by train: Who’s on board?
Vincent J. Bono wants to start a commuter train linking Worcester and Providence.
Can private rail make a comeback? Developers in Florida think so, with new private commuter rail service between Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, with a northwest extension to Orlando, set to begin in 2016. And with local plans in the works, Worcester and Providence could be another set of cities to be connected by train.
A commuter rail between Worcester and Providence is the vision of Vincent J. Bono, CEO of Boston Surface Railroad Co., in Arlington, a new venture formed for the purpose of launching a private commuter train. Bono and his team assessed a handful of cities but settled on a Worcester-to-Providence route as the strongest bet to make the model work.
Developer: We can be profitable
“There's really no reason that passenger rail can't be profitable,” Bono said in a Dec. 18 interview.
Bono is new to the railroad business. His career has focused on the technology sector with expertise in communications and networking, which he said can be applied to the logistics involved in running trains. He has experience consulting for government contractors and is an expert in the area of automatic collision avoidance, technology that Congress has required all rail operators to implement by the end of this year.
Worcester and Providence were a good match for Bono's project because the infrastructure is in place. Boston Surface Railroad is looking to lease office space in Worcester's Union Station, from where its trains would operate. The company is also working on an agreement with Providence & Worcester Railroad, which would operate Boston Surface trains on its existing track.
Following some improvements to boost speed on the track, which is now used for freight, Bono said his company wants to run a pilot train in about 18 to 24 months, with an initial 90-minute ride between the cities. He said he needs about 750 riders per day to make it work within a three-year ramp-up period.
The big question is whether Boston Surface can generate that level of ridership. While local officials have welcomed the Boston Surface plan, they recognize that the private passenger train model hasn't been tested in decades, with the last U.S. private rail line, the Rio Grande Zephyr that ran from Denver, Colo., to Ogden, Utah, having ceased operations in 1983.
“It's all about managing costs and identifying your target market,” said Tim McGourthy, executive director of the Worcester Regional Research Bureau. McGourthy met with Bono and his business partners a couple of times during his recent tenure as CEO of the Worcester Redevelopment Authority, and liked what they had to say.
“I think it's a very thoughtful business model. They need to test it to see how it works but it's a very thoughtful approach,” McGourthy said.
It's a targeted approach too, and that's what the Boston Surface plan has going for it, according to Bono.
All long-distance passenger trains today are run by the government under Amtrak, which operates in the red. Bono said that's because of the myriad political considerations Amtrak must take into account. A private rail company can plan a line that's efficient, with few stops, while the taxpayer-funded Amtrak must make its trains widely available to the public, he said.
Boston Surface's planned Worcester-to-Providence service would run three trains in the morning and three in the evening, specifically for commuters, with one stop in Woonsocket. This would allow the company to manage its costs closely and serve a very specific target market, Bono said.
Worcester to Providence, by the numbers
Bono has done the research, but whether his numbers are accurate is arguable. His business model assumes there are 30,000 people commuting from Worcester to Providence each weekday. That figure came from work two interns did to count the number of cars traveling south on Route 146 into Rhode Island between 5 and 11 a.m. over a year, Bono said. He admitted that the traffic may not be headed directly to Providence, saying the company has “made some assumptions” about where drivers were headed in its model.
But there are indications that Bono could be overestimating the number of regular commuters between Worcester and Boston. The U.S. Census collects county-to-county commuting data, and according to the latest numbers from 2010, there were only about 3,500 people driving regularly from Worcester County to work in Providence County. On the flip side, only 55 made the reverse trip northbound.
In addition, daily ridership on the commuter rail between Worcester and Boston — which is only slightly longer, at 44 miles — is about 1,300 on 20 round trips per day, according to the MBTA. Boston Surface would have to do a little better than half that on just six trips a day within three years of launch to meet its profitability goal.
The projected train ride time of about 90 minutes is a potential problem, too, given that it takes about 45 minutes without heavier traffic to drive the roughly 40 miles from Worcester to Providence. But with future track improvements planned for the line, Bono hopes to reduce travel time to about 70 minutes. Yet he's still confident that Boston Surface can attract enough riders with a 90-minute trip. He said some people don't like to drive in poor weather or who would trade driving in heavy traffic for a reliable train ride.
He also thinks some are starting to shift from automobiles, with more households wanting to own just one. That could also benefit private rail.
City official: It has a chance
Michael Traynor, chief development officer for Worcester and executive director of the Worcester Redevelopment Authority, thinks Boston Surface has a shot. He said there's a “heavy commute” from Worcester to Providence, and though the reverse commute is not as large, he said a commuter rail link could attract more people from Providence to jobs in Worcester, increasing hiring prospects for local companies and potentially creating a more vibrant city.
“I think it's an interesting project and it would be nice to have that connection down to Providence,” Traynor said.
Meanwhile, the WRA would welcome a sixth tenant at Union Station, which it owns, Traynor said. “The more usage you have, the better,” he said.
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