Every December, the WBJ Editorial Staff makes 10 predictions of news events and trends coming in the next year for the Central Massachusetts economy.
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Every December, the WBJ Editorial Staff makes 10 predictions of news events and trends coming in the next year for the Central Massachusetts economy. Here's what they expect to happen in 2022.
More Central Massachusetts workers will be represented by labor unions.
In 2020, the number of Massachusetts workers represented by a union fell from 13.2% to 12.8%, mirroring long-term state and national trends. Despite this, conditions are ripe for reversal, as the ongoing labor shortage gives workers more power, which will lead to more organizing and collective bargaining.
Amazon will announce even more facilities in Central Massachusetts.
During the coronavirus pandemic, the online retail giant seized greater control on the market by expanding its distribution footprint everywhere, including with new facilities planned for Worcester, Charlton, Northborough, Westborough, and even a 4-star store in Millbury. More will come in 2022.
Maura Healey will be the next governor of Massachusetts.
When Gov. Charlie Baker announced in December he would not seek a third term and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito said she would not run to replace him, that left the door wide open for candidates from both parties to seek the nomination. Attorney General Healey, with the name recognition, statewide office credentials, and a sizable campaign warchest, will come out on top.
Rent control becomes a major issue in Worcester.
Rumblings about the need for rent control in high-priced Boston are already being tossed around, and the issue seems likely to become a major point of debate in 2022’s gubernatorial election. As Worcester housing prices continue to spike, that debate will matriculate to the second largest city in the commonwealth, too.
The City of Worcester will again fail to generate enough revenue to cover its Polar Park debt payment.
In fiscal 2021, the City needed to generate $640,000 from the special ballpark tax district to cover the annual payment in its 30-year debt service for the $160-million stadium. Instead, the City got $391,000. For fiscal 2022, the City needs $2 million. Even with more developments coming online and contributing to the tax base, the revenue will again fall short.
The Worcester Regional Transit Authority will make free fares a permanent policy.
On the heels of a Worcester Regional Research Bureau report saying eliminating fares on transit would cost a minimal amount while providing significant community benefits, WRTA suspended all fares in March 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic unfolded, later temporarily extending the policy through the end of 2022. By then, this policy will be permanent.
Another Central Massachusetts college will close.
The higher education industry was already in a tough spot before the coronavirus pandemic, as the number of graduating high schoolers – its core customers – was falling in a demographic shift. Then COVID exacerbated everything, causing Becker College in Worcester to close this year. With these trends continuing, more of the 15 Central Massachusetts colleges will be on the chopping block, particularly private schools with small endowments.
The Massachusetts Nurses Association union will lose its foothold at Saint Vincent Hospital.
While 2022 will be a good year for unions, the MNA won’t reap the benefits. While Saint Vincent Hospital hasn’t been a winner in the now nine-month-long nurses strike over staffing ratios, the MNA hasn’t either, as the strike is less about the actual union members and more about continuing the fight the MNA started with its failed 2018 ballot initiative. Already, Saint Vincent is flush with replacement nurses and MNA members who crossed the picket line. Not a good starting point once the MNA tries to rebuild when the strike is over.
Central Massachusetts home prices continue double-digit percent increases.
With apologies to the WBJ readers, who are collectively predicting mild increases in home prices around the region, the residential real estate industry will see its rapid price growth continue in 2022. Through October, the median price of home sales in Worcester County was up 10% in 2021, and the same factors driving that growth – limited housing supply, spiking demand – will remain in place next year.
The Massachusetts cannabis industry surpasses $2 billion in annual sales.
From when the first two Massachusetts adult-use marijuana dispensaries opened in November 2018 to the end of 2020, the industry generated about $950 million in revenue. For 2021, marijuana retailers are nearing $1.3 billion. With more dispensaries opening and legal marijuana use becoming more socially acceptable, the industry will reach the $2-billion annual revenue milestone in 2022.
