TrimTabs: Government Overestimating Recovery
TrimTabs Investment Research, a California firm that tracks job growth using data on daily income tax receipts to the U.S. Treasury, thinks the federal government's job creation estimates in recent months are too high.
TrimTabs released estimates today that show the country added 156,000 jobs in March, up from 100,000 in February. The federal labor department will release its own estimate later this week. But it's February estimate of 236,000 is more than double TrimTabs' own estimate for that month.
TrimTabs said wage and salary growth was 3.9 percent year over year in March, but adjusting inflation, the growth was actually 1.9 percent. That follows a 1.6-percent drop in February.
"Most journalists and market strategists are convinced the economic expansion is picking up steam, but that's not what real-time tax data indicates," said David Santschi, CEO of TrimTabs. "Wages and salaries aren't growing any faster now than they were late last year."
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