Slow And Steady Growth Ahead, WBJ Forum Gathering Told
The U.S. and global economies are rebounding, but the growth on this side of the world will be slow and steady, according to panelists at this morning's Economic Forecast 2012 forum sponsored by the Worcester Business Journal.
But one of the panelists, Robert McGee of U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management, predicted a surge for the United States' manufacturing industry.
"Manufacturing in the U.S. is coming back," driven by technological innovation and the industry's global approach, McGee told an audience of about 250 at The Beechwood Hotel in Worcester. That potential surge also bodes well for Massachusetts because of the technological knowhow in the state, as well as its ability to innovate, he added.
What's needed to sustain that, McGee said, are the industry's ties to the state's universities and colleges that can help provide the training needed to perform the work. He said he has heard stories about many companies that have a hard time filling jobs that require a high level of technical skill.
Ted Lapres, the president and CEO at Clinton-based plastics manufacturer Nypro, Inc., another of the three panelists, supported that point, calling today's manufacturing equipment "so sophisticated" that it calls for higher training to operate it. He added that immigrant workers need training in English - which he said Nypro supports - to help the company fill out documentation that's sometimes required by government regulation.
"We need to have a strong manufacturing base if we want to have a strong economy," Lapres said.
McGee predicted that the nation's economy will grow at modest 2 percent to 3 percent in 2012. He also forecasted better days ahead for the global economy, but not until the second half of the year. He said the signs of growth are already being seen in the Chinese stock markets, which he views as leading indicators.
The U.S. has a big advantage over global competitors by adapting more easily to economic change, McGee told the audience, as well as being on the "leading edge" of technology, a key in enabling that change.
The third panelist, John Mahoney, vice chairman and CFO at Staples, Inc., is "slightly optimistic" about economic growth in 2012, but told the gathering that health care reform will be a key going forward, specifically reining in health care costs. He fears that companies will drop their health care plans and transfer the cost of coverage to the federal government.
McGee said politics, especially the battle over health care reform, looms as a potential impediment to growth, and while the federal and state governments have reined in spending, it's important that Washington address the nation's deficit. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated a $1.1 trillion budget deficit for fiscal year 2012, which ends Sept. 30. The federal debt, meanwhile, is estimated at $15.2 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.
Click here to read the Worcester Business Journal's 2012 Economic Forecast issue.
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