MetroWest Researchers: Economy Still On Shaky Ground
The MetroWest region went into a recession later than the state and national economy and the downturn has not been as dramatic, according to researchers at Framingham State College's MetroWest Economic Research Center.
But ask this group of MetroWest experts what will happen in the next year or so and they will tell you no one knows for sure.
"There are some glimmers of hope, but we are nowhere near out of the woods," said Martha Meaney, a professor at FSC and MERC researcher who specializes in the housing market.
Regional employment, housing and cost of living data from 13 communities that make up MetroWest, as defined by MERC, have each seen varying degrees of recovery, suggesting that the economic future for the region remains precarious but optimistic.
MERC held its 18th annual conference Friday at FSC and released an 80-page report detailing MetroWest economic trends. The study focuses on housing, employment, unemployment, cost of living and municipal revenue for MetroWest communities.
Monthly employment in the region peaked in June 2008, then had a "catastrophic" drop in the first quarter of 2009, according to Marureen Dunne, an FSC professor who tracks employment figures for MERC.
"We held on as long as we could and then it was a bang," she said. "We had a lot of retail and seasonal hiring, you almost wouldn't have even known there was a national recession, then in the first quarter the party was over."
By June 2009 the economy had shed about 5 percent of its jobs in a years time.
The regional economy, she said, is driven by three "supersectors" in four major geographic areas. Professional services, manufacturing and trade, transportation and utilities make up about 60 percent of the workforce in the region. Meanwhile, the four communities of Framingham, Westborough, Natick and Marlborough house about 70 percent of the work force for the region.
Of the $11.8 billion payroll in MetroWest, the big four communities combine to account for about $8.5 billion. Framingham alone accounts for about $3 billion in payroll. The payroll total from the big four communities makes up about half of the payroll for the entire MetroWest-Interstate 495 corridor.
"These are major economic drivers for the state," Dunne said.
As for the future economic outlook, Dunne said she expects wages to remain relatively flat as there are still a high number of unemployed skilled workers.
Adam Ploetz, director of sustainability programs for the MetroWest 495 Partnership, which advocates on behalf of the region, said he's confident about the region's future. Unlike the technology bubble that burst in the early 2000s, Ploetz said MetroWest now has a strong, diversified base of industries that will help the region weather the economic storm.
Plus, he said, many economic indicators are pointing in positive directions. The University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute's MassBenchmarks recently reported that the state economy grew at a 3.1 percent rate in the first quarter of 2010 and predicted the economy would grow at a more than 4 percent rate over the next six months.
Perhaps more than any other indicator, the housing market shows the large degree of variation recovery is taking in MetroWest. Only four of 13 communities in the MetroWest region as defined by MERC saw housing prices increase in 2009 including Ashland, Sudbury, Framingham and Southborough. The other nine saw housing prices continue to decline, as they have been since 2008.
Between 2000 and 2006 housing prices surged 43 percent, then in the next two years prices gave back almost half of that increase.
Condominium sales, meanwhile, were up about 7 percent in 2009 compared to the year earlier, with about two-thirds of that increase occurring the greater Marlborough region.
Cost of living for the region continues to remain about 30 percent higher than the rest of the country, with housing and utility costs being the two largest driving factors.
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