Briefing: Revised Unemployment
For months, discussions of the Bay State job market have begun with the premise that unemployment peaked at 9.5 percent in January 2010 and then fell fairly quickly. But now, the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development has revised its 2010 unemployment numbers to show unemployment hitting a high of 8.8 percent in October 2009 and staying there for five months before starting to fall. The rate has now stood steady at 8.3 percent since September 2010, according to the new numbers. The old numbers had the rate at 8.2 percent for the last couple of months.
How are unemployment numbers revised?
Statewide workforce data is based partly on household surveys done by the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists use information about the Massachusetts labor market to adjust the national information and come up with an estimate for the state. Once a year, the state revises the numbers based on actual data from unemployment applications. The new numbers also reflect tweaks to the way seasonal adjustments are made, which generally result in smoother trends.
Are the new numbers right?
When the state revises the unemployment rates each year, its calculations change the numbers for the past five years to improve accuracy. But, according to Labor and Workforce Development, most of the revision gets done in the first year, so the 2010 numbers should now be fairly good.
What do the numbers mean for the state’s economic condition?
An analysis by the State House News Service points out that the new numbers suggest the Massachusetts recession wasn’t as bad as opponents of Gov. Deval Patrick claimed before his reelection, but the state also did less well than previously thought in climbing back up. When it comes to measuring the state against others, it’s important to note that most states are also revising their numbers.
Related Links
Massachusetts unemployment stats
What about local unemployment?
Numbers for the state’s various labor markets have also been revised. Economists do that by starting with the state numbers and use statistical measures to extrapolate information on local areas.n
WBJ Web Partners
Most Recent
Most Recent
0 Comments