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November 8, 2010

Behind The Sound Bite: Election Turnout

This issue’s edition of Behind The Sound Bite is less of a notable quote than a prediction. The day before the Nov. 2 statewide election, Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin went on record predicting that he expected voter turnout to reach more than 2.4 million voters, the highest level for a non-presidential election since 1990.

We decided to follow-up on that prediction and take an in-depth look at the voting record of Bay Staters over time.

How many people voted in the mid-term election?

The final vote totals weren’t released in time for this publication, but based on election-night totals for the governor’s race, we fell short of Galvin’s prediction. Approximately 2,290,000 people cast a vote for governor. That race, according to Brian McNiff of the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s Office, is usually a good barometer for turnout because it’s the highest profile statewide race. There are just shy of 4.2 million voters in the Bay State, which means we had a turnout rate of 54.5 percent.

How did this year’s turnout compare to other mid-term elections?

If the vote count for the governor’s race is any indication, turnout was lower than past years. In 2006, when Deval Patrick earned his first term as governor, turnout was 60.9 percent. That was an increase from 2002 when 55.9 percent of registered voters cast ballots. However, voter participation is still much lower compared to historical levels. The highest level voter turnout for a statewide election during a non-presidential year was in 1962 when more than 81 percent of the 2.6 million registered voters cast a ballot.

What was the national voter turnout?

The national average turnout was 41.5 percent, according to estimates from the United States Elections Project (elections.gmu.edu). That turnout rate is based on the eligible number of voters, which is generally higher than the number of registered voters. The state with the highest turnout was Oregon (56.9% of eligible voters) while the state with the lowest turnout was Texas (32.5%).

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