A recession will come, eventually
WBJ Editor Brad Kane
Back in September 2008 when I was young and invincible (and stupid), I decided to leave my steady reporting job at the Naples Daily News in Florida to be a freelance correspondent for the Boston Globe, fulfilling a dream of writing for a major metro newspaper. Even though I was newly married with an infant daughter and somewhat aware of the warning signs of the coming recession – especially in the real estate market – I figured fortune would favor the bold. It did not.
After about six months, as part of a financial fight between the Globe, its union and its parent company at the time – The New York Times Co. – the newspaper eliminated the regional edition in which most of my articles appeared, taking 90% of my income. Since I was a freelancer, I didn’t receive any severance pay and was not eligible for unemployment.
Since we were new to Massachusetts, my wife, daughter, newborn son and I didn’t have any support network to fall back on. Hardly any other media companies were hiring, and especially weren’t looking for know-it-all reporters who brashly quit their jobs just as the economy was slowing down. Over the course of a month in early 2009, I went from writing steadily for New England’s preeminent daily newspaper to barely scraping by as a part-time server at a chain restaurant. This is how I remember the Great Recession.
America’s economy has steadily improved, and it turned out fortune favored the humbled, as I caught on as a reporter for New England Business Media and later became WBJ’s editor. The country is in the midst of its longest period of economic growth, but all I can think of is when the other shoe will drop. A recession will come – one, two or 10 years down the line – and I have sworn to be smarter this time.
On page 12, News Editor Grant Welker takes a shot at figuring out when the next recession will come, as warning signs start to mount. He found out predicting the timing of an economic slowdown is like trying to define the exact dimensions of a cloud. The warning signs could signal a 2021 recession, or they could be being overanalyzed by people who worry the current length of our economic growth is unsustainable. Either way, it behooves all of us to be smarter, not to overleverage overselves and be mindful of the warnings this time around.
- Brad Kane, editor
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