Residential real estate in Central Massachusetts has been in a seller’s market since 2013. Our research shows that 12-year run has finally come to an end.
Today’s market is balanced. It may not be a buyer’s market, but it’s tilting in favor of buyers.
That may not be good news for sellers, but it’s long overdue. Homebuyers have not had much to cheer about, as even rising interest rates failed to bring down prices.
In Massachusetts, buyers have been burdened with some of the highest prices in the country. The typical home in Massachusetts is valued at $634,548, according to the National Association of Realtors, 78% higher than the national average of $361,293.
That leaves many Massachusetts residents with few choices: Renting, moving to a less-costly state, or moving to one of the lower-priced Massachusetts communities.
Still, would-be Massachusetts homeowners should be encouraged by the results of our research. ERA Key Realty Services tracked housing in four counties, comparing the first half of 2025 to the first half of 2024 in Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk and Worcester counties. We found market inventory has jumped 29% for single-family homes and 34% for condominiums. New listings are up by less: 9% for single-family homes and 14% for condos.
While supply has surged, demand has slowed. Pending sales have stagnated, growing just 2% to 5%, causing absorption rates (the share of listings going under agreement) to fall by about a quarter. In Worcester County, the absorption rate is down 26% for single-family houses.
Inventory has been low in large part because of the Federal Reserve Board’s zero interest rate policy, which was a response to the Great Recession of 2007. Many homeowners were able to lock in ultra-low mortgage rates, but rising rates created a disincentive to relocate.
At the same time supply was tanking, demand was increasing as Millennials, then members of Generation Z, began seeking to purchase homes.
The net result has been ever-escalating prices. Average monthly mortgage payments on median-priced houses have surged from $1,445 in 2021 to $2,570 in 2024, according to The Wall Street Journal.
While first-time buyers accounted for about a third of all homes purchased from 2015 to 2023, in 2024 the share declined to 24%, the lowest level since the NAR began tracking the data in 1981. The average age of first-time buyers has increased from 28 in 1991 to 38 today.
The housing market is cyclical and ever-changing. Prices historically get only so high before they begin adjusting downward. Prices remain high today, but the bidding wars that jacked up prices are no longer taking place.
